Yes, the scales are a little more weighted to one side - that is why I propose we should not follow through with the exact proportionate increase as previously (4x), but rather slightly less (2-3x), in order to offset the risk. But imo it should still be a very significant one and I’m glad to see others have been vocal about their opinions, too.
The difference between genessis and origin is big, a lot of ppl were confused at the presale instructions but made eventually made their deposits with huge help from your community admins (you have very understanding ppl there and they helped out toonnnssss of people) and I think they deserve a pump from origin to public price.
I belive that the price could be 30k sat so you give the origin people some edge it is not a big increese and public launch would still be a success. The given market conditions will prepell this price in no time. If we launch soon that is.
Maybe it really is a 50 50 thing here. But i am still for a price increese to 30k sat. But I 200% trust that any decision you make will be the right one.
Just my 2cents and I am sory about my broken english🤦🏻♂️
I am very glad to see all these responses. I am particularly pleased that people are disagreeing with me. It leads to stimulating debate.
I have published a thread on the question of price. I would like to see deeper consideration of this point.
I think that while raising the price from Origin is a consideration, it is not nearly the most important consideration. I am concerned it may be too short term focused. The key question, I think for all stakeholders and for the project, is setting up the project for success - and this includes success in the market.
Allow me to describe a scenario - we launch the SOV/BTC market on Sovryn and people find it difficult to get RBTC. So a few people decide to sell, and there is not a lot of demand (on the platform) on the other side. The token value could fall, even if there was actually quite a bit of demand.
Another thing we should take into consideration: The token price is currently attractive to us, becuase we already understand and believe. However, future buyers might still need to be convinced, and higher prices need even more convincing.
To me the difference between Genesis and Origin, as a lens to look at Evolution to Origin is maybe the wrong lens. I would like to see more discussion of what we do to make Evolution to Open Market most successful.
I would also remind everyone that we didn’t know Origin was going to end at 10k. That was the highest possible price. The floor price was 3k sats.
While we are on this example I think it is absolutely paramount before Evolution to solve the difficulties of acquiring rbtc. Ideally the protocol should have a reserve that people could buy limited amounts of, enough to fuel their transactions. So like a 0.01 or 0.05 or 0.0025btc limit with then a 7-day cooldown or something, so people could top up directly on the platform.
So let’s do some maths. Let’s say the price of BTC goes to $70k. At 17.5k sats that gives SOV a price of $12.5 USD. Many people still price in USD, because they are not Sovryn yet
At $12.5 USD we would have a starting market cap (circulating supply) of probably $40-50m. So not crazy town, but higher that most DeFi projects.
To stay at the same price, we would need to absorb about 100 BTC of buying demand in the month that followed - or about half of what we raised in origin - so doable. We would need to do that pretty much every month (not considering the rising price of BTC.
I’d not focus too much on genesis/origin/evolution comparison.
As they are not really comparable (beside straight pricing in sats)
Genesis was a rather wild ride (or block fight).
But key point is, genesis was rather closed.
Only selected participants had a chance even.
Also their risk is very asymmetric against origin, because of the 10mo vesting period.
Origin was basically open to everyone (but still limited by total allocation and 0.1 max amount).
Course mostly early users knew, but lots of people came into by yt, Twitter etc…
A slight increase in sats imo would reward and comfort those (and all other) early holders.
A too steep increase (as already highlighted) may give instant comfort to all current SOV holders, but possibly increases downside later on.
I’m mostly in favour of market shall decide price.
Rn this market only exists in too limited way to be usable for judgment. Like supply/demand is rather restricted.
I’d love to see a “free market” (exchanges) picture of steadily increasing appreciation. (Guess we all do). But we still have no idea on were demand lights up and supply motivation kicks in. By the same reason I’m on the side grateful of having had a few chances to get SOV this early, on the other side my gut feeling shouts: No more sales rounds… get this beast out into free nature.
That said, long story short;
if I’m asked: 15-20k sats.
The demand of 100 btc per month you mention is imo easily achievable. I think people are underestimating the number and full impact of hardcore btc lovers who were unable to participate in defi due to refusing to give up their keys and/or having to use centralized exchanges in the process. I’m of the opinion that these users will flock to Sovryn not only due to the financial interest they can harvest, but also because it lines up with their ideology. Also, I assume marketing will pick up even more leading to public sale and after to spread awareness about the project, which will likely result in more users and again more activity via the btc demand.
As per the current discussion, I know that with Sovryn our ideas are actively listened to and so am enjoying this myself, too.
I only mention Genesis a lot because some users were experiencing errors with generating btc deposits or were confused overall and were told ‘‘don’t worry, there will be another presale soon’’. You can only imagine the utter disappointment, if there is someone who was within our community since the beginning, for some reason did not get tokens in Genesis and then found out the only way to buy SOV is with a hefty 4x price increase. Again, still worth it because of the project’s ambitions, but…It is sad and we have seen users like this in chat - that is why I want us to keep the comparison between Genesis and Origin in mind.
Suppose btc doesnt rise to $70k but enters a midterm correction to like -40% or -50% (small in comparison to the -80% declines of the 2017 bullrun, before the peak even), we should consider in this discussion which implications that would have.
Given the tendency for altcoins to see a drop in btc value during btc corrections, what would that mean for us in this case?
I am not exactly sure about the answer to that question myself… but I think it is important to consider that scenario as well, so we have positioned the Evolution price as optimally for btc/usd price development both up and down.