There is obviously debate on this question and I have no special knowledge. So I turn to the wisdom of the crowd. What do you think will be the price of SOV on the day it starts trading? Most importantly, why? Please explain how you try to estimate it?
Assume for the moment that it is only trading on the Sovryn platform but could start trading on Uniswap soon after as well.
Bonus question - what type of discount do you think should be for the Evolution sale? Again, why?
I think this question is really hard to answer. Because there has not yet been an SOV-Token on the wider market. Bitcoin has not yet been utilized in that way. Sure Ethereum has been and successfully, as we can see the developements of the DeFi market in the last couple years. But a full on DeFi enabling Token on Bitcoin?
The worth of SOV should not be overly high in the days of it entering the broader market. It has to be discovered and big players should be given a chance to stock up on Liquidity. As far as I know, the volume is planned to be 100mio SOV after the 10 months past Genesis token aquisitions.
I do not think that the price should be much higher than 30k sat/SOV at the start of the open trade. If the market sees the worth of an absolutely new product, it will grow by itself thanks to in part people who want to utilize the token and in part by people motivated by profits (as they would rightly assume that SOV will grow).
For the Evolution sale: I only know that it should not be lower than 11k sat/SOV. Otherwise the people from the Origin sale will revolt xD
This is my two cents, please correct me if I’m too optimistic.
I believe the price of SOV at the day it starts trading is 0.001 BTC. So it will depend on BTC price to determine its fiat price.
Why? I think DEXs will be the future in crypto but not immediate adopted due to technical difficulty. I assume the percent of early adopters will be 0.1% and growing. In the current bull market, I guess 0.1% jumping on DEFI project is a humble estimate, especially this is the very first DEFI on BTC, instead of ETH. I haven’t taken into account the capital from other Defi projects that will pour in SOV because I assume this portion will be spread out when more BTC defi projects follow Sovryn. So let’s just stick with 0.1% BTC market cap or 0.001 BTC pricewise. Then the token will grow when we have more adoption.
The discount price to rewards early investor could be about 25k sats, assume market cap is 0.1% of BTC which is about 1 Billion. So I see the team vision is that we will have 5B market cap which bring the price to 125k sats or around 0.001 BTC when it start trading.
Best wish to the team and our community!
To help draft a good response, it might help if we knew the various pervious sales (their names, dates, # of participants, # of tokens) and planned future sales (their names, dates, # of participants, # of tokens).
Do we have the most recent roadmap?
And also where can we track the weekly | bi-monthly sprints?
With all these sales and price getting higher and higher with every one of them there will be quite high market cap at the very begining. As far as I am informed there will be app.5 mil of SOVs circulating at first. So if we assume that the price of Origin sale will be 10k sats (at the time of sale that was somewhere arround 4,5 USD per 1 SOV) that is allready 25 mil MC. BUT there is still public sale to come. And if we take into account that the price of SOV at Genesis sale was a little ower 0,8 USD, price at Origin sale will obviously be 5 times that, then we can expect the price of public sale anywhere above that, then the starting MC could be at arround 50 mil USD, which is pretty high compared to most other projects. It is not huge, but for atracting adoption, awareness and recognition I think it is pretty high.
17000 satoshi seems reasonable as start.
I think $12-$15 per sov will likely be the lowest price providing the project performs as expected from a technical perspective, it provides an alternative to any Eth services that could be considered competition with less gas fees. I have no doubt Sovryn can capture a hug portion of the market share.
Centralised entities such as Blockfi are having difficulty attracting many users because some investors are not prepared to hand over control of their liquidity. It has certainly prevented me from entering that area of the crypto market and I am sure I am not the only person with hesitation in that regard. Sov will provide a low cost alternative to such services…I predict people migrating in droves providing the R-BTC barrier of entry is solved.
I think that $12 will be well received at launch and experience a network effect after a period of success using the platform and by then I will be fully stocked with Sov of course haha.
Considering the fact that “Genesis” participants have a 10 month vesting period, making it impossible for them to dump their tokens after public sale.
15k-17k sats is a fair price for "Evolution " sale.
This will most likely stop a lot of “Origin” sale participants from dumping their bags at a 50-75% ROI, knowing very well that SOV is a potential 100x project.
Personally I think a range between 15000-25000 sats is a good price at market open. With SOVs staked, and if SOVs are used in Liquidity Pools, it should bring about a constant demand for SOVs upwards
I think part of the pricing problem between Genesis and Origin was the message. Instead of “we didn’t know and we priced too low” I think of it as two completely separate deals. In Genesis the lockup period is 10 months, in origin the lockup period is much, much shorter. That alone is reason to have a vast price difference. The other side is that before a sale was made and the price wasn’t known it was a much bigger risk until you knew the demand. in origin we knew the demand would be higher so that’s the price could go up and the terms were much more favorable as there was not the long lockup period. If there is another sale I would say 13k - 15k or so sats since a little later and less risk, and no lockup, this higher price.
Building on what others have already voiced, and considering SOV’s excellent tokenomics, the network effect should be maximised, in favour of focusing on the price alone.
Better minds than mine are available to calculate pricing, but I feel that 20k sat for Evolution is appropriate, given that Genesis did the heavy lifting, and Origin already had it much easier in terms of media buzz and almost no entry requirements.
Evolution sale allows adopters to participate, who needn’t be very proactive at all, since Sovryn is being mentioned in many groups and channels, and Yago’s great session with Pomp certainly put Sovryn on the map.
A public sale price of less than 50k sat would surprise me. This is SOV, not just one more DeFi project. Should SOV first be available for trading solely on the Sovryn dapp, then the price on Uniswap would have to be at least 100k sat.
I suggest working our way downwards from those prices, if it serves the network effect.
In order to better understand Sovryn’s current situation, I’d first like ask:
- Is the project currently generating any income? (If so, how much?)
- If not, what is the anticipated income at the time of Pre-Sale.
From there we can determine what is the potential income per token and do a total valuation on the circulating supply or income generating tokens at the time. That can give a fair value pricing of the token at Pre-Sale.
The process for this would be:
Total income generated per month (or expected to be generated) / number of tokens that are generating that income * 12 months = Pre-Sale price (which is an annual valuation)
*You can replace months with blocks or lockup periods or anything else that may apply.
This method only proves successful IF there is sufficient income generated in Sovryn at the time and if the price calculated works out to what you would like it to be at.
At the same time, You can incentivise income generating usage of the platform with distribution of SOV for that.
In that way, users are almost purchasing SOV but through transactions on the platform that generate income for Sovryn.
Hey. The problem is the Origin sale price - it was too high vs Genesis and is now pushing the price even higher for the public sale.
I agree with everyone here:
- a price too low on the public sale will upset the Origin supporters
- a price too high will generate a huge MC vs other projects in this space. And I while I feel this project has a massive potential, a big starting MC will prevent us from having mass adoption.
And this is waht we want, right? Lots of believers, from day 1.
So, having said that, I think the perfect solution here is to reassess the Origin price. It is now at 4x vs Genesis - take it down! This will allow us to have a fair price for early supporters and enough room to set the right price strategy for Evolution.
Is this still possible? Rediscuss the Origin price?
Hello all, here is my opinion.
The Genisis price was a set price with investors knowing that there would be a lock-up period for 10 months. I’m sure there was a major discussion on what price to set initially.
The Origin price was dictated by the market with a set price range. Even though all Origin investors would have liked to get the 3k sat prices as opposed to the 10k sat price it ended up at, the market spoke. With the final price coming in at a 10k sat price, the community knows that there is high demand for this project and investors are willing to pay for it. This is a very possitive aspect that I don’t belive should be overlooked.
In regards to the Evolution sale, why not set a new range as specified in the DRAFT SIP 0009? With such high demand in the two previous token sales, the market will dictate the price as it did the Origin sale and hopefully completely sell out. Whatever the price ends up at, all will know how much momentum and demand is currently here. I don’t believe that a 15k sat price should be the ceiling though. I believe that it should be similar to the 7k sat range as the Origin sale to be a bit more consistent.
The Open Market is as we all know very tricky. I believe that once you see the demand for the Evolution sale, you will have a better idea of where the market is for acuiring and trading SOV.
Price discussion, here we go. In my opinion:
Mistake 1: For some reason, people compare Genesis sale price with Origins sale price. Like it or not, Genesis sale was for the people who were testing the platform and reporting bugs. They spent their time to improve the platform. Their tokens are vesting for ten months. Sold out in 18 minutes. For Origins sale, there was a 200btc target to be reached, which means every sov token has a price of 10000sats. People showed interest, and they bought the coins. Different buying procedure, with an email invitation, but still sold everything in 1 day. Vesting period of 1 month. Supply and Demand. The next sale is Evolution, and let’s say the price is 20k sats, and all coins sell out. Shall we expect another round of complaints from people who joined the Evolution sale to have a price close to Origins sale? Come on. People will always want to buy things cheaper. They will compare situations while at the same time ignoring supply and demands facts. So far, we ‘‘tested’’ the price twice with the Genesis and the Origins sale. Result: Great interest from people to be part of Sovryn. This can only drive the value up and test price milestones.
Mistake 2: People compare Sovryn with other projects. Its a Layer2-application on top of the Bitcoin protocol. I am sorry, but I fail to find something similar—DeFi for Bitcoin. You cannot compare the price with any other projects. You need to discover the price and understand the interest. The price will settle by itself. We can only set targets and see whether we achieve them or not.
My opinion about the evolution sale: This should be like a Genesis sale. First come, first served. 15k sats. No discounts. Did you manage to get in? Good. You didn’t? You will get it when it is listed on exchanges. If this were the last sale, it would be better to finish the sale rounds with another quick sell-off.
good price $ 4.5-5), taking into account the purpose of the project and the possible development of additional options for the community. taking into account the peak of the DeFi market. and the growth of Bitcoin, followed by a decrease in the price of Bitcoin to 30,000 and possibly lower, while maintaining this price for a year. my opinion. Sovryn will warm up the market and swing the market price with a pendulum.
The price of SOV the day it trades (considering the demand we had in the Origin Sale and upcoming Evolution Sale) should at least be at a 100% to 900% premium difference. So around 20k to 100k sats. If Sovryn materializes to it’s potential, then initial market cap won’t really matter. There’s a lot of shit coins out there with high market caps.
One thing I can say for sure though - the Evolution Sale should also be done via sats to be fair to the previous sales. Discount? None. It should be a privilege to be able to buy SOV before it starts trading.
With all due respect I dont understand why people here are so committed to the idea of pricing sov in sats. This isnt 2017 anymore, market caps are denominated in dollars, and a sat valuation is only great until bitcoin moves downwards and affects the price and we’re asking for it to “detach”.
I understand very well the technological ties to bitcoin, but directly relating the price to a sat valuation is a stretch.
Lets face it, btc has almost doubled since the sale. Its not because you participated in the sale in bitcoin that you should be guaranteed to get your sats worth, this is simply sunk cost logic.
Now in my opinion, in order to answer the question, a comparison to similar tokens might be a good start, RIF for example is at 200mil marketcap, so that gives an idea about the target price in the medium term at least.
Obviously this is a loaded question which will have many different opinions. I have to admit that I have recently changed my point of view about where the opening price should start. At first, I was only looking at the Fully diluted market cap, and was concerned about the price being " overly valued " in comparison to it’s Fully diluted market cap. At current origin price this puts the overall FD Market cap at around 560 Million dollars. While this might seem expensive for a relatively new project I think the focus has to be more on the overall potential rather then setting a value on based on other projects.
Sovryn is very different then the typical run of the mill ETH project. Bitcoin is where over 70 % of all Crypto value is. That can’t be over looked. There are many Bitcoin users who refuse to put all or any of their Bitcoin on other smart contracts chains. If done correctly and users feel safe and secure to do so, while using Bitcoin as the Native currency for transactions, this beast has no limit. 560 million may seem high but it’s chump change as this project can easily make top 10 on the crypto list.
I think another important factor which is being over looked is how fast BSC chain has reached overall adoption as a result of ETH Gas fees. Users honestly don’t care about which chain they transact on, as long as they are making money and aren’t paying as much in fees. If you offer them all of that, plus the security of the BTC chain, well, there is no telling how far the valuation for this chain can reach.
I would also like to add that this project also helps to fund the BTC miners as it users a merge mining proof of work which helps to compensate and continue to secure the overall health of the BTC network.
Another important thing which will add value and create demand for SOV is the fact that SOV will be used as a form as collateral to keep the BTC peg secure on the RSK chain ( or any chain that we move too ) . That is huge and should not be overlooked. That added with the fact that users will be able to stake SOV will create a insane amount of demand.
The other point I wish to speak of is the fact that Sovryn won’t actually reach fully diluted market cap until 7 years.
With that being said and the current schedule for SOV being released into the market I feel a opening price of 15K Sats is fairly priced and may even be on the cheap side.
I think the Team should consider a similar style for the evolution sale as the origin as it will put the market demand to test.
- Price the day it starts trading - 40k SATs. Its like comparing iOS (BTC) with Android (ETH). SOV (Apple) is one of a kind project (at least for now) to compare with other Defi based ETH (Android Phone) project. To put a price for a value is not cheap. Value will follow functions, price will come after.
However, I will not focus so much on the price because for me the TIMING is much more important here because the pace of technology is very fast. Other (BIG & ESTABLISHED) Defi project might consider to do the same as SOV to enhance their function for the crowd. We don’t want to left behind just before we even started.
- Evolution sale WITHOUT discount - 25k SATs. But WITH discount - 15k SATs with 30 days staking period.